Read about the latest political betting odds and tips here at Betting.Betfair, and discover the latest news on political subjects from around the world: UK Politics US Politics Brexit More. The first part’s easy — find the political, entertainment, or novelty betting tab and you’ll find the site’s options for gambling on politics. We cover the second part in the following three sections. Political prediction markets work a bit differently than traditional sportsbooks, but they do offer a legal option for Americans wondering how they can bet on politics. Luckily, would-be political bettors in many other countries around the globe are free to wager on the next President or other major political developments directly at their. BetOnline is easily among the best online gambling sites to bet on the US Presidential election. But it has plenty more to offer than just political betting. This particular operator focuses on sports betting and also offers casino gaming and a poker room.
Political Gambling Websites
A few weeks ago, a passenger in the café car of an Amtrak train near Wilmington, Del., overheard a juicy rumor. A Joe Biden ally was on his cell phone, promising people that the Vice President was preparing to enter the 2016 campaign. The eavesdropper alerted a reporter, who posted the tidbit online.
Ian Miller read the story and knew just what to do. Logging on to a political-forecasting website called PredictIt, he quickly bet a few hundred dollars that Biden would enter the race. As Miller expected, the odds soared as the news spread. Then he hedged his bets, netting a nice profit.
So it has gone all year for Miller. The 24-year-old high school teacher from the suburbs of Chicago has won with online predictions on everything from President Obama’s weekly approval rating to the results of the Israeli elections. Miller deposited $110 in March; now he’s up more than $16,000. “It’s been a good couple of months,” he says.
Welcome to the new American campaign casino. PredictIt is just one of several emerging websites that allow legal betting on daily events. The biggest are in the multibillion-dollar fantasy-sports market, led by DraftKings and FanDuel, which lets fans bet on professional athletes’ performance. Both companies were roiled by insider-trading allegations in early October after a DraftKings employee with access to company data won a $350,000 fantasy-football jackpot on FanDuel. The New York State attorney general has opened an inquiry.
PredictIt is different in scale and purpose, but complications remain. Since its debut in October 2014, the nonprofit site has enabled political buffs 18 years or older to forecast political events with the academic goal of testing whether markets can be more accurate than polls or pundits. To date, its 37,000 traders have wagered $9.4 million on a platform built in a partnership between New Zealand’s Victoria University and the Washington political-technology firm Aristotle. (The latter handles logistics like matching buyers and sellers, and takes a 10% cut of traders’ profits.) Market theorists say the use of real money is an incentive for experts to participate, which sharpens the site’s forecasts.
Real stakes require rules, which were approved by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Most notably, the amount of money users can wager on each prediction is capped at $850, a limit designed to discourage market manipulation. It also sets PredictIt apart from Ireland-based Intrade, which reported $230 million in bets on the 2012 presidential election before it ran afoul of U.S. regulators.
Still, insider trading could prove to be an issue. Although PredictIt bars its own employees from betting, “there’s really nothing we can do” if campaign pros, congressional staffers or pollsters choose to capitalize on valuable information, says Brandi Travis, an Aristotle executive.
Take the betting market on the next majority leader of the House of Representatives. When influential Wisconsin Representative Paul Ryan endorsed Representative Tom Price for the post, the Georgian’s odds quickly spiked from 15% to 83% before plummeting in the days to follow. Anyone with advance knowledge could have profited. And while there have been no allegations of improper trading, the prospect of an uneven playing field may deter some players in the wake of the fantasy-sports scandal. There’s always a “risk that a bunch of people figure they’re not one of the insiders, so they take their ball and go home,” says Barry Ritholtz, a New York investor and critic of prediction markets.
That hasn’t stopped the site from becoming a touchstone for presidential-campaign staffers. Travis says a member of Jeb Bush’s campaign told her it tries to assuage doubts among nervous donors by pointing to Bush’s odds on the site, where he ranks as the second likeliest GOP nominee, behind Marco Rubio.
For savvy traders like Miller, whose predictions incorporate quantitative modeling, one of the keys to success is separating head from heart. He’s happy to make a few bucks off Biden’s indecision. But he’s voting for Hillary Clinton in the end.
This appears in the October 19, 2015 issue of TIME.
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For your security, we've sent a confirmation email to the address you entered. Click the link to confirm your subscription and begin receiving our newsletters. If you don't get the confirmation within 10 minutes, please check your spam folder. When it comes to the legalization of online gambling in America, there are both Republicans and Democrats who oppose it. There are also Republicans and Democrats who support it. Indeed, the issue of legalizing U.S. online gambling is a controversial one, and it's difficult to predict who will support or reject the cause based on political party affiliation alone.
Right now, Internet gambling is only permitted in three states: New Jersey, Nevada, and Delaware (see the ongoing trend revenues). Other states are pushing to legalize the activity within their borders, and there has even been talk of a merger between New Jersey and Nevada that would expand the boundaries within which those states' citizens can remotely gamble.
Here's a look at some key players in the ongoing battle over online gambling legalization in the U.S.
U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein: A Democrat Against Online Gambling
U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein opposes online gambling.
She recently penned a letter to U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder urging him to stop Internet gaming from “invading living rooms, bedrooms, and dorm rooms across the country.”
Reading between the lines of Feinstein's message, it seems that she's concerned about protecting families, particularly children and college-aged young adults, from the addiction that could result from home-based online betting.
Senators Lindsey Graham and Kelly Ayotte: Republicans Against Online Gambling
Feinstein's letter to Holder was co-authored by Republican senators Lindsey Graham and Kelly Ayotte. Graham, who hails from South Carolina, has a history of promoting anti-gambling legislation. Last March, he initiated an effort to restore the Federal Wire Act, a law which prohibits all forms of online betting in the U.S.
Ayotte is a senator in New Hampshire who concurs with the rigid philosophy of Graham and Feinstein. She has a political history of supporting small business owners, sustainable healthcare reform, and women's rights.
Sheldon Adelson: A Republican Against Online Gambling
The owner of the Sands Casino empire, Sheldon Adelson, is an octogenarian and a financially influential Republican.
Adelson takes a strong stance against the expansion of Internet gambling and has vowed to use his millions to fight its encroachment on society. According to a report from the Wall Street Journal, Adelson has actually swayed some members of the American Gaming Association to his side.
This is no small feat considering that online gaming would only improve cash flow in America's struggling gaming economy. Adelson explains that he fears for the children who would be exposed to gaming propaganda at home.
Critics have expressed the jaded sentiment that the business tycoon is just trying to protect his own brick-and-mortar empire.
Minnesota Governor Mark Dayton: A Democrat Who Supports Online Gambling
Political Gambling Websites
Earlier this summer, the citizens of Minnesota faced a bill that would potentially ban online lottery sales altogether.
Governor Mark Dayton vetoed the bill, explaining that the Internet is an “increasingly common way for the public to access services.”
Dayton views society's movement toward online gambling as part of a natural, technological evolution that shouldn't be tampered with.
Dayton vetoed the anti-lottery bill right before the end of his state's 2014 legislative session, making it impossible for politicians to override his veto.Like Minnesota, Illinois and Georgia also sell lottery tickets online.
Chuck Canterbury, President of Police: An “Apolitical” in Favor of Online Gambling
Chuck Canterbury, president of the Fraternal Order of Police, or FOP, is affiliated with an organization that has historically supported the Republican party. In spite of this, Canterbury has always maintained that he is “apolitical,” explaining that his 'loyalty is to police officers, not any political organization.” In the particular case of online gambling, Canterbury supports its legalization.
He argues that online gambling prohibition would only encourage the activity on the black market. If the government doesn't regulate the activity, Canterbury believes that the underhanded black-market would gain even more power than it already has.
The best way to fight fire, according to Canterbury, is with fire.
Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal: A Republican Against Online Gaming
When Bobby Jindal ran for governor in Louisiana, he promised his constituents that online gambling would not be a platform he supported. “Putting a stop to (online gambling),” he says, “should be supported by both Republicans and Democrats.”
Jindal says he doesn't believe the online gaming proponents who say, “Trust us. It's safe for kids.
In Jindal's mind, nothing could be further from the truth.
Ex-Republican Ron Paul Supports Online Gambling as a Libertarian
Ron Paul is a charismatic political figure who served for a time in the Republican congress. He was twice nominated as a Republican candidate for president and once nominated for President under the Libertarian party. According to Paul, a ban on Internet gambling would steal important freedoms from Americans.
Paul also expresses concern that a ban on cyber betting would force banks to act as “law enforcement officers.” According to Paul's philosophy, small business is under no obligation to perform any type of “surveillance function” for the federal government.
In general terms, Republicans tend shy away from legalized Internet gambling more often than Democrats. Some Democrats, in fact, embrace the notion of organized Internet gambling as both a freedom and a way to protect America from under-handed criminals who would use casinos to launder illicitly gained money from the black market. Influential leaders like Senator Dianne Feinstein and FOP president Chuck Canterbury blur the lines, however, making it impossible for us to label either side of the argument as a 'Republican' or 'Democratic' issue.
The tug-of-war between Democratic and Republican ideals has raged in the U.S. for centuries, and it will continue to rage over this issue as key players step up and share their views. Only time will tell whether the online gambling freedoms enjoyed by New Jersey, Nevada, and Delaware will reach the citizens in other U.S. states.
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